#BadAtMath: Covid-19 Exponentially Not Good News

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

I went to school for journalism, not math. However, I was perusing the covid-19 data for the homeland (United States) and it’s not good news.

On March 26, the US had about 101,000 confirmed coronavirus cases. Eight days later, the US has 208,000 more cases. That means that as of April 3rd, 309,000 Americans had confirmed coronavirus cases.

Here’s where my bad math skills come in to play. If you average the total number of new coronavirus cases during that 8 day period, it comes out to 26,000 new cases per day on average.

At this rate, the US will see just under 800,000 new cases a month.

The sad news is that my bad math doesn’t take into consideration the exponential growth of this pandemic (see chart above).

That means that I’m under-estimating – by a lot – the total number of new cases the US will see in the next few months.

My math skills are sketchy, but what is certain is that our country is going to see millions of people with coronavirus. What will the death toll be? That’s math, I just can’t do.

I pulled my data from the Johns Hopkins Covid-19 Map.

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