I like Bernie Sanders. I think he would make an amazing president. If he could truly lead this nation, we could do so much to move this nation forward. But putting aside the liberal fantasy of a Sanders presidency, I don’t think it happens.
Sanders is doing OK against Clinton in Iowa. But let’s be honest, despite the public relations campaign to make it appear so, Iowa is not a bell weather state. New Hampshire is, and Sanders is kind of walloping Clinton. The latest CBS poll has Sanders beating Clinton 15 points.
Things start to turn sour for Sanders after New Hampshire. The next big primary state is South Carolina where Clinton currently leads by 43 points. Now that Biden is definitely out, things will shift in the polls a bit, but I’d wager most of Biden’s support will go to Clinton.
Imagine Sanders wins Iowa and New Hampshire, where does he go from there? He might win Wisconsin, Washington state, Oregon, but where is his path to lockup the nomination? Maybe a wave of enthusiasm created by Sanders winning Iowa and New Hampshire will propel him to the nomination, but I just have a hard time seeing it happen.
I’m prepared to be wrong, but at this point, even though Sanders is my preferred candidate, this is Clinton’s nomination to lose.