Tuesday is the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primary day.
Former Vice President Joe Biden has just crushed Senator Bernie Sanders in South Carolina.
Biden’s win makes this race a two-race between he and Sanders.
Let’s pretend we can predict the future based on past events, like the 2016 Democratic Primary – Super Tuesday.
Here’s the data for Super Tuesday 2019.
| State | Delegates | Clinton | Sanders |
| Alabama | 53 | 44 | 9 |
| Arkansas | 32 | 22 | 10 |
| Colorado | 66 | 25 | 41 |
| Georgia | 102 | 73 | 29 |
| Massachusetts | 91 | 46 | 45 |
| Minnesota (Caucuses) | 77 | 31 | 46 |
| Oklahoma | 40 | 18 | 22 |
| Tennessee | 67 | 44 | 23 |
| Texas | 222 | 147 | 75 |
| Vermont | 16 | 0 | 16 |
| Virginia | 95 | 33 | 62 |
| Total Percent | 56% | 44% | |
| Total | 861 | 483 | 378 |
There were 10 primaries and one caucus in Minnesota. Sanders won 5 of the 11 contests.
In 2020, there are 14 rather than 11 races in 2016. I wrote down some estimates of how these races might turn out Tuesday. I’m assuming that with Sanders’ improved political machine and that Biden isn’t a woman will benefit Sanders.
| State | Delegates | Biden | Sanders |
| Alabama | 61 | 50 | 11 |
| Arkansas | 36 | 24 | 12 |
| California | 494 | 264 | 230 |
| Colorado | 80 | 37 | 43 |
| Maine | 24 | 6 | 18 |
| Massachusetts | 114 | 66 | 48 |
| Minnesota | 92 | 42 | 50 |
| North Carolina | 122 | 58 | 52 |
| Oklahoma | 42 | 17 | 25 |
| Tennessee | 73 | 24 | 49 |
| Texas | 262 | 182 | 80 |
| Utah | 35 | 6 | 29 |
| Vermont | 23 | 0 | 23 |
| Virginia | 95 | 58 | 37 |
| Percent Total | 54.1% | 45.9% | |
| Total | 1541 | 834 | 707 |
Based on these estimates of doing slightly better than he did in 2016, Sanders loses. For Sanders to walk away with an overwhelmingly victory, he needs to turn out the vote in California and Texas. Sanders did poorly in Texas last time, so there’s a lot of room to grow beyond what he got last time – 80 of the 262 delegates.
This is Sanders’ race to lose and Biden has to wipe Sanders off the map on Tuesday.
Leave a Reply