Sanders Will Lose to Biden on Super Tuesday 2020

Tuesday is the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primary day.

Former Vice President Joe Biden has just crushed Senator Bernie Sanders in South Carolina.

Biden’s win makes this race a two-race between he and Sanders.

Let’s pretend we can predict the future based on past events, like the 2016 Democratic Primary – Super Tuesday.

Here’s the data for Super Tuesday 2019.

StateDelegatesClintonSanders
Alabama53449
Arkansas322210
Colorado662541
Georgia1027329
Massachusetts914645
Minnesota (Caucuses)773146
Oklahoma401822
Tennessee674423
Texas22214775
Vermont16016
Virginia953362
Total Percent56%44%
Total861483378

There were 10 primaries and one caucus in Minnesota. Sanders won 5 of the 11 contests.

In 2020, there are 14 rather than 11 races in 2016. I wrote down some estimates of how these races might turn out Tuesday. I’m assuming that with Sanders’ improved political machine and that Biden isn’t a woman will benefit Sanders.

StateDelegatesBidenSanders
Alabama615011
Arkansas362412
California494264230
Colorado803743
Maine24618
Massachusetts1146648
Minnesota924250
North Carolina1225852
Oklahoma421725
Tennessee732449
Texas26218280
Utah35629
Vermont23023
Virginia955837
Percent Total54.1%45.9%
Total1541834707

Based on these estimates of doing slightly better than he did in 2016, Sanders loses. For Sanders to walk away with an overwhelmingly victory, he needs to turn out the vote in California and Texas. Sanders did poorly in Texas last time, so there’s a lot of room to grow beyond what he got last time – 80 of the 262 delegates.

This is Sanders’ race to lose and Biden has to wipe Sanders off the map on Tuesday.

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